2024 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Game 11 (2024)

The Cubs have started this season about as hot as I can remember any team since the 2016 team. The Opening Day loss was a close one, marred by Justin Steele’s injury. That hiccup in the sequencing on the pitching maybe cost them a win in that one. They got smoked in game two. In the nine games since then, they are 7-2 with Monday’s bullpen meltdown away from 8-1. The Cubs are a little bit better health away from an 8-3 or 9-2 start. Of course, it’s always fair to note that a couple of breaks the other way and the team could be 5-6. Two of those wins were very close.

Baseball is like that. So much of it is played out at the margins. That was at least part of the thinking in the baseball season being so long. On any given game, there is such a wide variety of outcomes. I think hockey is the only other major sport that plays out as such. In football and basketball, in a lot of the games, you pretty much know absent a real outlier which team is going to win. Not all of them, of course. There are many games between similarly talented teams, but there are also a lot of them that you just know what is going to happen.

I think I have just a little bit of frustration that the Cubs didn’t add at least one more arm in the offseason. Precisely because of how many games operate at the margins. No team is going to get its hands on an army of superstars. Superstars have the capability to at least slightly alter the trajectory of a team. Absent the ability to obtain superstars, you are adding stars and role players. Those have value too and I always think of those as stacking them to add cumulative value. I’ll say it often that you need contributions from 30-35 players along the way to have a really good season. Monday’s loss was a failure of those players in the 20-30 range on the team. Those in the 1-20 range had a pretty good game.

To be fair, you can have a pretty good team just by having a solid 1-20 group. I’ll think of that as the 10-11 hitters who play pretty much every day, the five starters and the core relievers. Sometimes I’ll call those the “A” relievers. When you win a game 3-2, you’ll probably expect just about all of your 1-20 group save for the starting pitchers.

Due to injuries and fatigue after needing five innings of work out of the bullpen in a lopsided game Sunday after the rain delay, the “B” relievers had to be relied upon and they didn’t get it done. Had the Cubs had another quality veteran arm, that’s maybe the difference between a win and a loss on Monday. We can’t know. The Padres lineup got hot and even Adbert Alzolay ended up as roadkill. He’s definitely a part of the core group. Core guys have rough days too. But again, you stack your depth hoping you have enough options to finish out a win like that instead of suffering a frustrating loss.

Still, it’s not hard to see what the Cubs front office was looking at. Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are a very good and a good starting pitcher missing from this team right now. Javier Assad has done nothing but post decent outing after decent outing as a major leaguer. He’s earned a chance to show that maybe he’s one of those “1-20” people. Ben Brown has flashed excellence. Jordan Wicks has flashed excellence. You surely didn’t want or expect all three of those guys to be leaned on as heavily this early. And yet, I don’t look at any of the three of them and say that, if they have to make five or six more starts, they are overmatched. Obviously one of them will continue in the rotation even after Steele and Taillon are healthy. But, the Cubs will need significant contributions from all three this year and they look up to the task.

It’s too soon to say how good this team is going to be. I still think the 2016 club was much better at the top. But I’m not sure that as you delve into the depth of this organization that this isn’t the best top to bottom group I’ve ever seen the Cubs have. Beyond the 28 players who have already suited up for the Cubs so far in these 11 games, I have confidence that there is another group of guys who will offer value when they get their chance later this season. And beyond that group is another wave of players who are on promising developmental paths that maybe could be late season depth options, trade pieces or players that will help in future years.

It isn’t perfect to say the least. Because they aren’t quite as top-heavy, this roster is going to have to battle it out more games than not. But, as a lesser team like the Rockies learned, they are just going to grind some teams into submission. The Padres too have struggled to break out of the pack these last few years and establish themselves as in that higher group of teams that are the legit contenders. Through two games, I have the distinct impression that the Cubs are better than the Padres. That’s not nothing. I didn’t feel that way against either the Dodgers or Rangers. But I also didn’t think that the Cubs were blown away either. Both of those teams, when playing well, is a real handful. But I don’t see anyone circling dates with this Cubs team either and looking forward to it.

Let’s get to three positive performances on a night when just about everyone who played contributed to a nice win.

1. It just about always runs through your starting pitcher. If Ben Brown were a bakery item, we might wonder if he was pulled out just a little too early. That said, in his last two outings, he doesn’t look like a guy who is outclassed either. This is a good Padres lineup. We saw first hand what they could do in the later innings Monday night. He allowed them three hits and a walk while recording 14 outs. He struck out five. He’s probably not quite ready for the role he is in. I’d worry about him having to log 150 innings at the big league level right now. But I’m not sure he couldn’t stay on in the bullpen and be a significant contributor if they felt that added more value than having him start for Iowa.
2. Seiya Suzuki gets my second nod. This was a scoreless game for a long time and with the Padres carrying forward a bit of momentum from Monday’s game plus the pitching matchup advantage, it felt like a game for the Padres to win. But there was Seiya singling in each of his first three plate appearances. Applying pressure, applying pressure and then “boom!” he was part of the five run rally that chased Padres starter Joe Musgrove and carried the Cubs to victory.
3. Anyone who thinks this next guy should be in one of the two higher places, I’m not arguing. Christopher Morel reminds me so much of Javy Báez. Not at all the same skillset or problems, mind you. But, both of them are guys maligned early in their career. And both of them have game-changing talent. Javy’s problem was producing consistent offense to compliment elite defensive and base running skills. Morel’s problem is settling into any position and providing even adequate defensive value to compliment raw offensive talent. He had two hits and a walk, didn’t strikeout and, of course, his grand slam provided the margin of victory. The bat plays. No question at all. His value skyrockets if he can do it while playing a position allowing flexibility through the designated hitter spot.

Honorable Mention: Cody Bellinger. Offensively, he provided a presence more than he did any significant impact. His throw in the first inning to complete a double play felt massive at the time. It felt like the Padres could carryover the win from Monday and roll over a rookie starter. But the double play reset things to level and Brown seemed to settle in nicely after that.

Game 11, April 9: Cubs 5, Padres 1 (7-4)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ben Brown (.228). 4⅔ IP, 16 batters, 3H, BB, 5K
• Hero: Christopher Morel (.123). 2-3, HR, BB, 4RBI, R
• Sidekick: Yan Gomes (.120). 2-4, HR, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.079). 0-4
• Goat: Nico ho*rner (-.055). 0-4
• Sidekick: Ian Happ (-.016). 0-4, BB, R

WPA Play of the Game: The game was scoreless heading to the fifth inning. That’s when Yan Gomes started the scoring with a solo homer off of Joe Musgrove. (.147)

*Padres Play of the Game: Xander Bogaerts led off the game against Ben Brown with a double. (.061)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner: Javier Assad collected 64 percent of the vote.

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Ian Happ +7
• Seiya Suzuki +6.5
• Shota Imanaga/Michael Busch +5
• Kyle Hendricks/Nico ho*rner -6
• Cody Bellinger -8

Up Next: Kyle Hendricks starts an “afternoon game” on the west coast. Kyle has historically been a slow starters and 2024 has been no exception. He is 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA through two starts. Hopefully, his third start and in a warmer locale will get him on track. Former Cubs prospect Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. The offseason acquisition has started his Padres career 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA.

None of the pitching matchups looked particularly favorable in this series. The first two have played out pretty well, maybe Kyle can hang in there too. It sure would be nice to stack another series victory before heading to Seattle to face a team that was expected to contend but has struggled out of the gate.